Budget 2025 income tax expectations: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is urged by EY to raise the basic income tax exemption limit from Rs 3 lakh to Rs 5 lakh and lower tax rates in the upcoming Budget 2025.
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Gold prices hit a record high of $3,160 per ounce as investors sought safe havens amid declining stock market futures following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs on major trading partners. Stocks and futures markets experienced significant declines, particularly in technology and clothing sectors, with companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Gap seeing substantial drops.
TCS and Infosys added twelve $100 million+ clients each post-pandemic, outpacing Wipro and HCLTech's seven. While TCS and Infosys boasted 62 and 40 such clients respectively by 2023-24, Wipro and HCLTech had 22 each. Large deal wins slowed across the industry due to reduced spending and global uncertainties.
India's manufacturing sector saw its fastest growth in six months in January, driven by a sharp rise in new orders and record export growth. The PMI rose to 57.7, indicating strong sector health. Robust job creation and easing input cost pressures were also noted. Optimism among manufacturers suggests ongoing expansion and solid prospects for early 2025.
US stocks witnessed a sharp decline. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year. The Fed hinted at fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously expected. Investors reacted negatively to this news. Bond yields increased, adding pressure on stocks. Smaller companies were hit particularly hard. Global markets showed mixed reactions to the Fed's decision.
The Indian rupee hit a record low against the dollar, closing at 84.85. Sanjay Malhotra's appointment as RBI governor sparked speculation of a dovish policy shift, with analysts predicting a rate cut as early as February. This expectation, coupled with India's weak economic outlook, could further depreciate the rupee to 86 by March 2025.
In November, the RBI sold $20 billion from its forex reserves to stabilize the rupee. Nomura observes that the central bank has sold $89.4 billion since October 2024, yet India's forex reserves remain adequate with a 236% adequacy ratio as of January 3, 2025. Despite a dip from a peak of 266%, the reserves remain robust.
Sebi is expanding the T+0 settlement cycle to 500 more stocks, starting January 31, 2025. Initially, the bottom 100 of the top 500 companies by market capitalization will be included, with 100 more added each subsequent month. All brokers will offer T+0, and by May 2025, custodians and block trades will also participate.
The finance ministry's report indicates that the combination of RBI's monetary policy and structural factors may have led to the economic slowdown. The ministry highlighted slowed urban consumption and cautious corporate hiring practices as contributors. The report anticipates improved growth in the second half of FY25, while stressing the need for a comprehensive commitment to sustaining growth amidst global uncertainties.
Investments in India are set to grow faster than consumption in FY26, driven by government and RBI measures. GDP growth is expected between 6.5-7%, with improving rural consumption and higher government spending bolstering economic activity. Private investments remain stable due to strong corporate order books, while nominal GDP growth could rise to 10-11%.
India views the USA's announcement of 26% reciprocal tariffs as a 'mixed bag' rather than a 'setback.' The imposition includes a universal 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5, with an additional 16% from April 10. Discussions on a bilateral trade agreement between the two nations continue, aiming for completion by fall.